The new year 2022 started with a fresh All-Time High (ATH) in the S&P500:
|Jan 04, 2022||4,804.51||4,818.62||4,774.27||4,793.54||4,793.54||3,641,050,000|
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC loaded 22.01.2022
Some authors keep warning of a final Melt Up in 2021/2022 before a severe turnaround:
What Is a Melt-Up?
A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.
Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed. Melt ups often precede meltdowns.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/melt-up.asp loaded 22.01.2022
Are We Heading Towards A Meltup Or Meltdown? Here Is How To Prepare
Mar. 20, 2021 9:30 AM
- Let’s say you are fully invested in the stock market, be they individual stocks or indexes.
- The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial have been up nearly 80% since bottoming in March 2020, exactly a year ago.
- Are we heading into a new and prolonged bull-market, or are we heading blind-folded towards a cliff?
- We provide a strategy to prepare now to capture most of the future gains while preserving the capital in the event of a correction.
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Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414856-meltup-meltdown-how-to-prepare loaded 22.01.2022
Meltdown in Numbers
If the 4 800 ATH of 04.01.2022 was the last high before the big crash, the calculation goes like this:
80 % drop: new low 960
90 % drop: new low 480
My scenario has always been that if the S&P500 does not drop below the 2009 low at 675 points, the long-term story of always rising stock markets remains intact.
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