David Hunter predicts stock market crash by 80 %

The Commodity Supercycle

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As a result of the Corona crisis, central banks have pumped more money into the system than ever before. In parallel, governments have put together fiscal packages at historically unprecedented levels to buffer the recession and the effects of the crisis. All of this has caused prices for building materials, energy and raw materials to soar and for the first time in 40 years we are seeing strong inflation. Marc Friedrich believes that we are seeing a turning point and are at the beginning of a Commodity Supercycle that holds huge opportunities.

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David Hunter: Stock Markets will crash by 80 % starting in 2021

The first interview in this new video series is with David Hunter:

David Hunter has been a countercyclical macro strategist for over 40 years and has correctly predicted many developments. He correctly predicted the recovery after the Corona crash and the development of commodities. Now he warns of a historic stock market crash – already by the end of the year.

David Hunter on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian

David Hunter was one of the view analysts who predicted the end of the Corona crash and recommended to buy stocks in April, 2020.

For 2021, Hunter expects a massive melt-up boom in the stock markets with the following All Time Highs:

S&P500: 4 700 to 5 000

NASDAQ: 17 000

Dow Jones Industrial: 38 000 or 39 000

David Hunter: Stocks will lose by 70-80 %

Timestamps:

00:0000:50 Intro

00:5004:38 Where did his predictions come from?

04:3807:33 How did he invest?

07:3309:35 What can we expect?

09:3514:39 When will the melt-up boom end?

14:3919:00 How can we explain money printing?

19:0026:55 Is the REPO also a trigger?

26:5531:05 How will the stock market react?

31:0537:32 What will happen to the dollar?

37:3247:39 How can we protect ourselves?

47:3950:19 What is the meaning of life & moderation

Complete video transcript (auto-generated):

wow

so welcome everyone to our new series

the

commodity super cycle and it’s a

pleasure and i’m honored and flattered

actually to

to have david hunter on the show david

how are you today

i’m good mark thanks for having me on

this pleasure the pleasure of mine

yeah and i just saw it’s the first time

you appear on a german channel so hey

it’s a historic interview i guess

it is for me that’s for sure yeah but

this time we

won’t do it in german next time perhaps

but

let’s start i’m a big follower of you on

twitter and

um you’re bullish since march 2020 so

in april 2020 and you have been the only

bull actually

um on the internet but you were spot on

actually yeah if you look back so you

were calling for

a way higher stock prices back then so

why and what did you see what nearly

nobody else saw

yeah so i i was actually going into the

into the swoon in march i was actually

looking for a melt up that

obviously the pandemic kind of

short-circuited so when we had that

35 very swift correction in the s

p um i certainly took a close look and i

said is this the beginning of

um bear market and bust that i also had

been calling for i said when the cycle

ended it would end in a global bust

yeah um and i thought gee is it

happening a little prematurely because

of the pandemic

took a look at all my work and i said no

you know sentiment’s gotten so negative

so

quickly that i don’t think this is this

is more of a fake out

you know i don’t think this is a real

the beginning of the real bear market

um and that was the start of me then

looking and saying is the melt

up still intact and it was as far as my

work said

and i felt this was actually setting up

for the melt up because

we were going to get a tremendous

response from the

um central banks around the world as

well as

fiscal response from the governments and

that’s exactly what we’ve had so

i i knew we were going to see bigger

than we had ever seen

in terms of monetary uh infusion

and that’s usually what drives markets

much higher

so it was and and i’m a contrarian so i

had the best of both worlds because i

had the

what i saw coming in terms of the

monetary and of course jay powell

confirmed that pretty quickly uh and

then sentiment was as negative as it had

been

in many years um and those two things

are

are kind of um magic for me when i see

both of those together that’s that’s you

know bullish so

so i and my my melt-up call

had been for probably 4 200.

i i kept that and said we could even

exceed that and then as we went through

the past year you know i increased it

first to 4 500

on the s p and then up to my current

level of 4 700

and i’ve been pretty uh candid about

saying i think

if anything i’m gonna be too low you

know that we could see even five

thousand

so um you know everything’s intact right

now i’m

still very bullish um i still believe

there’s a global bus coming afterwards

uh and probably probably starting before

this year is out

but okay uh but for right now

all all things look good i don’t think

you have more than a couple percent

you can always get a you know a couple

percent pull back at any time

but i don’t think there’s much more

downside than that and

you know pretty clear sailing through

the next at least next couple months on

the upside

all right awesome so um what did you buy

then back

in the last year in march or april 2020

what kind of stocks etfs or what did you

invest in

yeah as a strategist i don’t tend to

talk you know my trading or any trading

advice

um but what i will say is you know early

on i said

you know you’re going to see um the

the stocks that got us here are going to

continue to lead right into the top

and that’s still my view so i’m i’m

still a bull on

semiconductors and and the fang stocks

in terms of uh you know and technology

in general

i also along the way was

pretty bullish on industrials

commodities

um i can’t remember exactly when i

switched to

each of those things but i know last

november i

i was uh on the table in terms of saying

we’re we’re going to see a switch from

um yeah you’re going to see some of the

laggers start to really catch up

particularly energy

and financials along with some of the

industrials and that’s certainly been

been the story the last six months so

and now i think we may see some rotation

i think those groups

continue higher into the top i think

we’re going to see some rotation

um back in in terms of leadership back

into the

the stocks that got hit by uh rising

interest rates yeah you know

i’m calling for a rate rally here so i

think you’re going to see a shift back

towards the fangs um towards technology

towards the growth stocks

and i think it could surprise people how

how strong those are they’ve had a

pretty nice consolidation here for the

last four or five months

and it’s interesting because other um

hedge fund managers they see a switch

from

from value to from growth to value

like um stan brackenmiller or um

felix zuloff and so on raul powell as

well so

this is a contrarian um opinion again

you have

so this is interesting if it will play

out so so what yeah it’s interesting i

think

yeah i think that you know i find and

and not on those people specifically but

you know in general investors

tend to extrapolate from behind so they

look backwards and then say that’s

what’s going to continue forwards

yeah we we had that shift of value

obviously starting last november

um we’ve had a big move and basically

the fang stocks have gone sideways for

you know since the beginning of the year

um and so

i think you’re you’ve set up a nice

consolidation for the next leg up

okay um so and you know that’s what

that’s what fuels that leg is to shift

from those that are

now saying value to where as they see

the momentum

shift they’ll be the ones buying the

the growth stocks up yeah yeah so we are

brother and minds because i’m a

contrarian as well and i also see a

meltdown because the um central banks

print like never before they’re in a

crazy mood actually

it’s like a tesla but anyhow and so we

talked about sentiment already you

mentioned it so what do you expect for

the next

month yeah probably

um yeah as i said i’m expecting

you know the bond market to rally here

i’m i’m calling for a 1

[Music]

20 on the 10-year probably at 195

on the 30-year um

and so i think as rates start coming

down

that’s going to help sentiment you’re

going to see i think

you know and as the tape improves on the

stock market

you’re going to see sentiment move up so

really i know everybody’s talking about

how everybody

all in and bullish but what i see out

there is a lot of skepticism

people with one leg out uh one foot out

of the door

and looking to exit everybody’s looking

for that top

at the true top i don’t think you’re

going to have anybody looking for a top

they’re going to be telling you why it

can go on for years

so always the same game it’s always the

same game

yes it is that’s one thing i’ve been

doing is 48 years and every cycle looks

you know of course they aren’t all the

exactly the same but they sure look

similar on sentiment basis and so i i

think as we move through

uh the summer you’re going to see that

sentiment move up into a much more

bullish

um place yeah i remember remember

in in 1996 alan greenspan he warned

everybody

about the exploration on the stock

market that the nasdaq is in a bubble

already

but this um yeah exploration it actually

went on for three and a half more years

and

i think the the biggest leg up was in in

in late 99

early 2000s so it was the end of the

bubble and

i think the stock markets like doubled

more than doubled back then

so what is your time frame when will

this leg up this melt up this

is this this boom melter boom and end

and

what comes afterwards yeah this you know

i get picked on a lot for this because

i’m always

looking for it to happen sooner but but

the reason i’m

calling for a top this year is because

the slope has gotten so steep you know

you’re into

um you know from last from march of 2020

obviously we’ve had a

you know one double in the nasdaq you

know unprecedented moves in the markets

and so i think we are with this

you know recent consolidation in the

markets

about to enter what i would call the

last parabolic phase

and a parabolic phase um or parabolic

stage

tends to be it covers a lot of ground in

a hurry

um and so it tends to be you know

shorter in duration

so you can have for example you know i’m

calling for 17 000

000 on the nasdaq you can have from here

a 25 move in the nasdaq

and yet say well it could be over this

summer

so that sounds you know unbelievable

but that’s what the last parabolic phase

can be

and so you know 4700 to 5000

on the s p you know 17 000 on the nasdaq

38 or 39 000 on the dow you know you’re

talking about

15 to 25

moves that could happen in a matter of

you know

two or three months and so i have people

on twitter

if you follow me you see that say hey

you said you were gonna

we were gonna top out in the second

quarter you only have a few weeks you

know you’re

wrong and i go i first of all i

i didn’t say that i said it could top

out that soon that’s the earliest it

could top out

um but the market if it you know

stretches out as consolidation that just

stretches out the time

frame but i think we’re getting close

you know whether it’s july or august

or september doesn’t really matter uh

if i were betting today i’d probably say

it could be over by labor day by

u.s labor day which is early september

but

you know the the timing isn’t the

important

thing the point is we’re in the very

last um

stage of a what i call a 39 year

secular bull market so you know which

month

uh is is less important when you’re

you’re 39 years

intimate yeah so um

after this melt up you expect the

biggest bust

in the post world area why and what will

we see

sure the the simple answer we just have

so much

debt that’s been piled on to the global

financial system over

you know the last 50 years and

particularly over the last two decades

uh you’re now um in excess of 250

trillion dollars

in global debt uh and then there’s

quadrillions in notional value of

derivatives

which is another form of leverage

and and i think we’re in a situation

where

inflation’s picking up the fed’s going

to be forced

the fed and central banks around the

world but particularly the fed is going

to be forced

to tighten and i think um

if the economy’s overheating and and

inflation

you know really heating up it’s not

going to be

people hear the words you know

tightening or things like that and they

they kind of think it happens

immediately or you know the the

response happens immediately tightening

takes some time to actually

have an impact so inflation’s going to

be continuing to move up while they’re

tightening so they have to tighten some

more

you know play out over i think you know

three to six months

but um but that tightening

into a very leveraged very extended

financial system um can

can lead to a very quick unwind

and i think leverage as we learned in

business school leverage works

uh to enhance things on the way up

and really exacerbate that the pain on

the way down

so i you know i may prove to be early

again but i continue to say

we could see the bust start in the

fourth quarter

so um that doesn’t mean the whole

thing’s

encapsulated in the fourth quarter of

course but if it starts there

i think i think we’re looking at any

whenever it starts

i think we’re looking at pretty much

2022 to be a

a pretty rough year in the economy

so so i’m wondering actually and many

people as well um

how can we have a deflationary bust when

we see this

crazy spending from governments from

central banks they’re printing like

never before i mentioned it already

so i also believe we will see a

deflationary bust big one the biggest

one we’ve ever seen so

but how can we explain it to the people

to the audience

when we see that government spend so

much money like never before trillions

of dollars actually

sure um so the the fiscal on the

physical side

you know i’ll focus on on the u.s just

because they’re the element in the room

but

you know president biden is pushing

you know trillions and trillions of new

spending

we’ve already you know in the prior

administration

you know the year after the the pandemic

started

you know we were already spending

trillions and then you add on

another you know whatever it’s going to

be 5 or 10 trillion

it’s beyond belief i mean if somebody

told you this five years ago you said

you’d say that’s never going to happen

um but

the thing is most of that spending

it doesn’t get spent in the you know

three months after it’s announced

it’s something that will fuel things

going forward but it’s not

you know it rolls out over time um

depending on what it is you know some of

it is you know when you’re

when you’re cutting checks in terms of

pandemic relief

for people yes that gets spent um but

uh in terms of you know green energy

projects

or infrastructure projects you know

you’re talking

things that are going to play out over

several years and they will influence

the other side of the bus more than

they’ll influence

um you know preventing the bust

and and on the monetary side um you know

what i would say is and again this is

something that i see on twitter a lot is

people think

it’s just a simple equation of the fed

sees

um the economy getting soft and

so they just push a button and out rolls

the money

they have to consider all kinds of

things you know there’s

uh they’re going to be dealing with

inflation and

and massive debt at the same time so

and and there’s a lead and a lag to when

policy has an impact fiscal lag is

longer as i

just explained but even in monetary lag

it you know the money that rolls out

doesn’t really influence the economy for

six or eight or nine months sometimes so

um i guess the answer i would give you

is that

we’re at the end of such an extreme

cycle

that things can happen fast in both

directions so

yes you can have inflation looking like

it’s going through the ceiling

and looking like um you know the economy

is very overheated

and you know fast forward three four

five months

and say oh my god the floor is falling

out of the economy and inflation’s

heading for deflation

so um that’s not normal in normal times

things play out over years

but because of where we are in the cycle

i think

certainly the markets will respond

quickly to tightening

yeah and then that will i think trigger

financial problems across the board so

you know i’d i

guess i’d go back and say march of 2020

is a bit of a microcosm of what i think

is coming

you know we saw a 35 drop in the stock

market

in a matter of three weeks so

we’re going to be at a more extreme

place where you could see a

you know 70 or 80 percent drop in the

market in the course of a few months

so i think it’s going to be fast again

market has passed the economy

will be relatively fast i think the the

bus to be mostly contained within 2022

but it you know so that’s relatively

fast for something that would normally

play out over

years yeah but but a year is an eternity

when you’re going through something like

this so it’s not

it’s not like you know i think investors

minds think

something’s going to happen and it’s

going to happen you know

in like three weeks but the economy will

play out over several quarters

yeah so you think the trigger will be

the tapering from the fed

and what about the repo can the repo

also be a trigger

moment for the markets that the um bust

will come

yeah well repo’s part of rebuild really

part of tapering you know that’s how you

taper

or reverse repost so they’re they’re

actually pulling money out now the fed

is i don’t know exactly what central

banks around the world are doing but the

fed has

has slowed down the money growth um

you know over the course of the last

couple months there’s a lot of talk

about taper there’s a lot of talk about

and and this is what happens a lot of

times the fed behind the scenes actually

done some of that already

so the market’s held up yeah you’ve gone

you’ve gone in so sort of a sideways

direction here up and down

for you know several weeks but

really you’re you’re um you’re working

through

some sort of a taper here i would not be

surprised and again this isn’t a

forecast but just a

a possibility i would not be surprised

if

in the course of the next couple months

we get better news on inflation

yeah um and maybe some weakness in oil

um and that is the trigger for

the rally and bonds and all of a sudden

as as is

typically the case you know wall street

goes

from 100 worrying about taper and

tightening to then 100 worrying about

are we heading into deflation you know

it’s like

you know their their thought process

moves a lot quicker than the actual

events happen but

um but i i that’s what i i would not be

surprised is

that you get the you know the backing

off of that

and so then the worry about gee the

fed’s going to have to

you know tighten and that’s going to

lead to a bust you know

doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen it

just means the worry about it i think

um softens so you expect the downturn in

2022

and um 80 90 percent from the levels

then

right now or in the future yeah

basically i’m saying from from wherever

we peak

if it’s you know 47 800

on the sp if it’s 5 000 that we’re

looking at a 70

to 80 decline in the stock market peak

to trough

okay um so let’s say just for uh easy

math

say we get the 5 000 on the s p you

could get back to a thousand

um and uh yeah that’s

we have not seen that kind of a draw up

since

1929 really you know we’ve seen some

big drops i mean 2008 nine was a big

drop

um you know 1974 was a big drop

1919 yeah and 1987 was a big drop in a

short while

um and of course on the nasdaq you know

the the 2000

uh one you know rollover was big so

so it’s not unprecedented really but in

terms of it

this would be the biggest bear market in

the post-world war two era

and in our lifetime actually yes

right right yeah so what happens after

the bust

so um and how will the central banks

react actually on this

bus yeah so so they will

and that’s you know just to get back to

how can this happen while the central

banks are on

you know on guard against us but

it’s going to take time when this

thing’s unwinding fast

it’s going to take time for them to get

to a right size

policy because if things are

unwinding because of massive leverage

fast then i think we’ll have some

major major bank failures around the

world so it’ll be a whole financial

system that’s melting down

you know they’re usually they showed in

march of 2020 they can put money in

pretty quickly

but they’ve already done a lot of that

so they’re a little cautious about

doing something like that again so it’s

going to be

you know initially as explorer response

and then things start

happening fast on the downside so then

let’s say they print a trillion dollars

or

pump a trillion dollars in a hurry and

it does nothing the

swoon continues they pump a couple more

trillion this wound continues

so it’s going to take time to get to a

right-sized policy

and you know i i have argued that we

could see

the fed go from what will probably be an

eight trillion dollar balance sheet

to a 20 trillion plus you know something

between 20 and 30 trillion

to deal with the bust so you don’t get

there mentally

right now i mean you know the fed if if

you told the fed today they’d be

putting 10 trillion dollars of new money

into the system right from here

they’d say you know that we can’t do

that

but it but in the crisis that’s what

it’ll ultimately lead to

uh over the course of months probably

you know weeks and months

um so so that’s how you get the bus

but then on the other side of it that

money that’s being pumped in if it is 10

or 15 trillion

on the fence you know from the fed

and equal proportionally equal amounts

from every central bank in the world

because it’s going to be a global bust

um you know you can imagine that with a

lag and that lag is probably

you know nine months but with a lag

you start seeing the other side of that

and just like we did after march

2020 and and so again a microcosm you

look at where we’re at now we’re talking

about eight percent gdp in this country

this year

and that’s a result of what happened in

march 2020 and beyond

so you know take that and multiply it

times

you know five or ten and you can have a

similar type situation where all of a

sudden

you come out of that trough and you come

out you know in a pretty hot way

um and next thing you know you’ve got

inflation times 10. you’ve got what we

have right now

except you know it’ll take some time it

won’t happen in the first year but in

probably in the second year of the

recovery you’re going to start moving

you know up the inflation curve very

fast and by 25

26 27 i

i think you’re going to be easily in

double digits and moving towards 20

inflation rates so when you step back

and see what that is

that’s basically saying we had 40 years

of disinflation

from from 20 inflation rate in 1981

um down to zero and ultimately down to

negative inflation

in 2022 and then

within three four five years

you’ve recycled you’ve retraced that

entire

40 year move 40 um 41 42 year move

um and next next thing you know you’re

back at 20

so you’ve done what took you 40 years to

accomplish

is undone in in lesson five that’s what

i think we’re in for

yeah so as i say you know the true gloom

and doomers out there the peter ships of

the world

you know can only see this collapse

and i don’t think they realize that

beyond the collapse you will have one

last cycle

and it’ll be a pretty unbelievable cycle

in terms of

if you’re in if you’re in the industrial

and commodity sectors you will have a

ride like we’ve never had

i mean exactly that’s what i said i

wrote in my new book actually that we

will see

uh the the next decade will be the

decade of commodities of gold of silver

of everything which is limited

and what will this do to the stock

market actually will we see

new highs will the dow jones hit the

hundred thousand

yeah i’m i’m of the belief and i’m

pretty adamant about this

that the big bull market we’ve had the

secular bull market

um that started in 1982 by my

call i sometimes say you could start it

in 1974

because it was a lower low back then

but i used 1982 august of 1982 because

that was the beginning of

um this whole disinflation move um

that led to p multiples going from price

earnings multiples going from

single digits to now mid 20s

um for the market multiple that was

driven by the fact that interest

rates went from a 15 10 year down to

um you know 0.4

you know in the past year and i think

ultimately we’ll see

the 10 year down to zero in the bust

um but that multiple um gets reversed

when you go the other way

because if inflation goes to from

negative to

20 percent interest rates are going to

go from

negative back to you know the 10 year

will go back to 15

if you have rates going back in that

direction to that degree

obviously what’s going to happen to

price earnings multiples they’re going

to con

they’re going to shrink they’re going to

be compressed dramatically

so you’ll go you’ll reverse that 40-year

multiple expansion and now have multiple

contraction through the next cycle so

so then what happens is the overall

market if you’re in an s

p index fund you’re going to not be

happy because

let’s say we get 5 000 this year

the likelihood is in the next bull

market it’ll be a cyclical market by the

secular bear market

in that cyclical bull market starting

you know later in 2022

it will probably top out somewhere below

4 000

so you won’t get near 5 000. you won’t

get near the this secular peak

you’ll have a run from say a thousand on

the s p to

you know 3 000 or 4 000 so you can

triple or quadruple out of the bottom

but you’re you’re looking at the secular

top tier

the likes of which i think serves as a

high water mark

for decades to come not a decade but

decades to come

okay and and so so that means it becomes

more of an active manager’s

cycle where it matters where you put

your money

you know it always matters where you put

your money but we had the benefit in the

last 40 years

of the pe multiple win that are back so

if you were in an index fund

you know you basically did better than

most active managers who were trying to

pick stocks and didn’t

you know weren’t in that um growth area

um in the next cycle it’d be quite the

opposite

you’re gonna have a you’re gonna have a

headwind of ever higher

interest rates pushing multiples down

so then what matters is picking those

stocks

that that have are beneficiaries of

inflation and the industrial recovery

where their earnings can outstrip the

inflation and interest rates

so you know it becomes a much more

selective market

active managers will be in their heyday

and index funds will be the laggards

obviously

for a period of time they’ll be going up

but at some point you’ll be sitting

there if you

if you buy into this buy and hold mantra

and index fund mantra

at some point say in 2024

you’re gonna be sitting there going you

know my index fund is going nowhere

and i have friends who are investing in

commodities who have doubled their money

yeah you know what am i doing yeah yeah

so

in this scenario what will happen to the

u.s dollar

um i believe i’m i’m a bear right now i

believe the dollar is headed

um in the next few months through the

summer

um down to 85 on the

dollar index and perhaps down to 80.

so so it’s somewhere between 80 and 85

and i’m

i’m thinking that be the lower number um

but uh from there in the bust

um so that that happens while we’re in

the melt up

um and then in the bust

i think the dollar as it always has

i think one more time it will be seen as

the place to run for safety

keep in mind we’re looking at we’re

looking at globally

the worst economic contraction

in the post-world war ii era so in the

past 80 years

that means people are going to be

frightened that means they’re going to

say where can i go

my you know everything i look at

including

i think the euro is going to be in real

trouble they’re going to say where can i

run to

and i think they’re going to choose you

know it’s

the best shirt and the dirty laundry

basically you know

they’re going to choose the u.s dollar

not because it’s

doing you know everything’s great in the

u.s because we’re going to be struggling

big time

but they’re still going to say hey this

is still the if anybody’s going to

survive this

it’s going to be the u.s so they will

still run here one more time

um from there though and and i think you

could let’s say you get down to

80 or somewhere between 80 and 85 i

think you could run the dollar up to 120

or higher

um in that during the bus yeah

in that flight to safety trade um and

then

wherever the high water mark is whether

it’s 120 whether it’s 140

uh which is my upside of where it could

go um

from wherever that is in that next

recovery cycle

because the fed’s going to print more

money than any any central bank you know

every central bank’s going to be

printing but we’re going to be the big

big one i think we you know you

what do what is printing what is what is

montezaria ease it’s

bringing currency you know we’re going

to have such a supply of dollars out

there

and and in conjunction with everything

that the world is

trying to accomplish against the dollar

that i think the dollar tops out

wherever that run

is during the bust and i think from

there it’s all downhill for the rest of

the decade

so i would not be surprised see the

dollar sub 50.

um okay uh by the end of the decade

so what um okay this is very interesting

because um

what would this mean for the the status

of the of the of the dollar

as a world currency will china overtake

will china be the number one in the

future or which currency do you see

as number one then yeah let me put it

this way i am not

in the camp that thinks we’re we’re in

some reset this bus

is not going to lead to there’s not

going to be a reset certainly not

immediately

um i am not in the camp that thinks the

dollar loses reserve status in the next

five years

okay okay after that all bets are off

anything

anything in the latter part of the 2020s

anything is possible because we’re going

to be dealing with a worldwide crisis

the likes of which we’ve never seen you

can’t

you can’t have policy like we’ve had

um you know certainly in the last 20

years leading up to this but

what’s what’s gonna what’s happening in

the last year and what’s going to come

in the next couple years is beyond

anything

that any system can withstand

think about it you know i can throw

around numbers on inflation

um and on markets and on you know gdp

how how i can’t i can’t tell you

how um a budget gets financed

that is you know has

um um

debt to the levels i’m talking

you know everybody’s talking about a

debt peak here

you know that this is the super cycle

peak in debt

i go no because of the bust you have one

more leg up

so 250 trillion or slightly above that

now

is probably going to go to something

like 350 or 400 trillion

by the end of the decade and most of

that in the next few years

how do we finance that not just the us

but around the world

with inflation rates and interest rates

in not only double digits but ultimately

high double digits

it can’t happen there’s no equation that

i can come up with

that leads to a much bigger collapse i

mean so

you know i i pretty much say that beyond

and i don’t have any precise timing but

i’m using

i’m saying this you know the the next

cycle’s gonna be a short one

maybe it lasts a decade you know the

rest of this decade maybe it

cut short of that but i believe the

2030s

is going to be a depression many many

times what this world saw

in the 1930s i mean it’s a collapse of

the entire

financial system as far as i can see

because i don’t see any equation that

can solve it

exactly exactly i don’t i don’t really

worry about

gee is china’s you know is that going to

take

the place of the dollar or are we going

to see

a a basket currency hey none of that

matters

exactly we’re talking about something

that is a worldwide collapse

yeah unfortunately i agree my last

best-selling book was called the biggest

crash of all times and that’s what i

actually predicted as well

and i’m really afraid that it will

happen there is no solution within the

system we see

the central banks the politicians have

only one

answer to all these problems it’s

printing money and making more debts but

it never worked it didn’t work in

zimbabwe it didn’t work in argentina or

in the weimar republic so it’s it’s all

the same game again but

we forgot because it’s a next generation

problem so anyhow

how can we prepare for this scenario

for inflation for deflation for this

depression so how to invest how to

protect your wealth and your

your money actually yeah as a strategist

i

i pretty much can only forecast i have

to

shy away from any kind of advice yeah

but what i will say is basically

um you know the the road map i laid out

tells you pretty much if you think about

it

you know the next you know you’ve got a

you’ve got a short window here

um into a top uh

you know the next few months and and

then you’ve got

you know the biggest market decline in

over 80 years coming if i’m right

and then you’ve got a fairly short cycle

driven by industrial and commodity

stocks

and basically you want to end the decade

debt-free financially

sound and and with

as much liquidity as you can have

beyond that you know i i do believe

gold’s going to

10 000 plus and i don’t know what that

plus is is it

is it 12 000 is it 15 pound i don’t know

but by the end of the decade i think

we’ll see gold there we’ll see silver

300 plus and again i don’t know if it’s

400 or 500 whatever that plus

is but um you know they will be

great through this decade um the

question

is what what do you do

in in uh you know

there’s no precedent for what’s coming

in the 2030s in my opinion

and it’s and it’s obviously it’s

financial it’s economic

but it’s also geopolitical and

who knows what comes out of that vacuum

my fear is it’s totalitarian my fear is

that

all the events leading you know that

have been going on for the last 50 years

are leading towards you know this new

world order is all leading towards

communism etc and totalitarianism

so my fear is that’s what fills that

vacuum

wrongly but um who knows i mean i am not

in the camp

there are a lot of people out there that

are wishing for the reset

saying oh yeah let’s have the collapse

now so we can just start over

that’s not how it’s likely to work you

know

uh nobody should be wishing for what’s

coming because i i think it’s

really dire yeah um and i don’t like

saying that because i

you know i tell people focus on the here

and now

um you know take care of your your

details now

um don’t you know compartmentalize don’t

don’t spend your time worrying about

what’s going to come in the 2030s

because it’ll paralyze you

you know you need to do this you know

the things that you can do now

um and focus on the now um

that’s the only way i can forecast if i

if i

you know thought about what i think is

coming if i spent my time thinking about

that

you know i wouldn’t sleep at night so i

think

you really do have to focus on um

you know first the melt up coming and

then the you know the bus that’s coming

and then

know that there is a recovery after that

bus don’t get caught in the

what i call the gloom and doomers that

are telling you we’re down for the count

in the next year you know there is there

is a recovery cycle and the reason there

is a recovery cycle

is simply because in deflation

the fed and the central banks have

virtually

infinite ability to print money yeah and

ultimately if you print enough money you

will get a recovery so

um the problem after the recovery

is that we’re going to have you know

we’re we’re going to be between a rock

and a hard place you’re going to have

hyperinflation and fragility both

and when the fed and so the central

banks will be out of the game

you know they can’t pour more fuel on an

already roaring fire

that’s what happened in the early 80s

you know you

you know if you have hyperinflation the

central banks are out of the game

yeah the reason we can have a recovery

cycle is because the central banks are

going to have infinite ability to

respond to it

because the inflation is lagged you know

that if it

if the money led to inflation in three

months

they couldn’t do it but you print money

today it doesn’t cause inflation for a

couple years or not

certainly not high inflation so so you

have that

freedom to say i’m dealing with what i

see right in front of me

which will be a bust i’m not dealing

with the consequences of that money that

i’m printing

that is going to lead to inflation you

know in the mid 20s

i got to deal with what’s right in front

of me so that’s why you can have a

recovery because they’ll have

you know unfettered ability to print

money

yeah so you mentioned gold and silver as

a safe haven

for the next couple of years till the

end of the decade what about the digital

gold bitcoin

yeah i did not follow bitcoin um i don’t

you know the cryptos to me have not been

tested you’ve got to get through the

to see whether they’re you know what

what

they’re going to be in that obviously

you’ve got risk of government

intervention

all of those things so right now i mean

it and not immediately right now because

it’s selling off but

in in the last many months it’s been a

you know

something that’s moving up so you got a

lot of people jumping on the bandwagon

why are they jumping on it because they

understand it

no they’re jumping on it because it’s

making money

you know it’s no different than a you

know a hot stock

um that is going straight up and we know

what happens when things go parabolic

and then

you know they correct so i’m not i’m i

don’t follow bitcoin so i’m not

making a recommendation one way or the

other

yeah i can’t anyway as a strategist but

but um

i would say just that it’s an untested

thing i think

and and there’s a lot of people out

there claiming

they understand it and etc um

i think those voices will be a lot less

if it continues to sell off because it’s

you know a lot of it’s being

generated by the you know the momentum

um so yeah i i

think yeah what about um commodities

mining stocks stocks in general

um oil will this be a safe

the thing i would say i i do think oil

in the next cycle is going to go to 300

plus which which time frame

um that will be after the bus to be

between

between the end of the bust and the end

of the decade

um and i think you could see it ramp up

pretty quickly so that by

2027 you might be there you might be at

300 that quickly

um you know you’re you’re gonna you’re

gonna hear

peak uh peak oil again as a

as a mantra out there yeah in not too

many years

because it’s even worse than ever

because obviously

with um the policies coming out of the

biden administration

um they’re limiting supply um

and you know we’re we’re gonna we’re

gonna see an

oil what we’ve seen in lumber what we’ve

seen

in um you know the metal steel and

copper and all of those where all of a

sudden

you go from just in time inventory and

demand roaring away

and what we’ve seen in semiconductor

chips you know all of a sudden there’s a

shortage

because we we plan for a much less of a

demand

picture than we’re getting i think

that’s what you’ll see in the next cycle

because think if if the world is going

to be as i’ve said

the next cycle is going to be an

industrial driven

cycle we haven’t had an industrially

driven

cycle um x china since

um since the uh 1970s

so you know the last 40 years has been

consumer driven

if we go to a industrially driven cycle

that demands a lot more energy and

particularly a lot more fossil fuels so

you can see oil i think demand go

through the roof

and supply is just not going to be there

so price give you know price goes

straight up

um the the thing that i do want to

question people is

just remember i i use the analogy which

you know in this country anyway of

standing on

the um south peak

of the grand canyon and looking across

to the north peak

and thinking it’s a straight line across

um

and not realizing there’s this big

canyon in between

well that’s like buying you know

the um commodities

this year and i’m not saying right now

is the top because they can go higher

with into the top but but you know

buying the commodities here in the next

few months thinking it’s a straight line

to the commodity cycle

in you know 2023 and beyond

that bust in between there’s a big

canyon i think you’re going to see

commodities get hit very hard during the

bus because demand is going to fall

through the floor

so it’s just you know they’re not a safe

haven in the bus

long term they are definitely have a lot

more room

upside um to go but just know it’s not a

straight line

um that that’d be my only message there

perfect

david it was incredible interview i

thank you very much already i’ve got

one last question and this is something

totally different than financial advice

or um

macroeconomics and we had now our dark

outlook for the future so but what is

for you for david hunter what is the

meaning of life

huh wow um gotcha

i i will say this and the you know the

older you got

the more you wish you realized this more

when you were younger

but um you know it’s it’s

something that people say when you leave

this earth you know it’s not going to be

you know those stock picks i made or the

forecasts i made that matter

what matters your your real legacy is

what you leave behind in terms of

what you teach children um you know

what you teach your grandchildren or the

times you spent with your grandchildren

the memories they have of you

uh hopefully good ones um and

to me i think if people could learn this

lesson earlier it’s always

good i mean i did know it all the way up

to some degree but i will say it’s you

know

being 69 years old now i really

pray you know i enjoy and treasure those

moments with

my grandkids and seeing the innocence in

their eyes you know and things like that

so

that’s to me that’s the meaning of life

not this stuff this stuff

kind of keeps us going it’s it’s our

hobbies or our livelihoods but

it’s it’s really your families that

matter yeah

true so hey i won’t stop you go and play

with your grandkids so where can people

find more about you

i’m sure the best way to um find

my work is on twitter i’m on there if

not every day

several times a week um you know

tweeting uh my views so

uh if you go to at dave h contrarian

uh you’ll find me there right

i will put a link in the in the show

notes of course and i recommend

everybody who’s watching this to follow

david it’s definitely worth it

yeah thank you and i i do write a um

quarterly investment

letter and i it’s it’s you know by

subscription so there is a cost to it

if people have an interest they can

direct message me on twitter and i’ll

give you details

um but um yeah i um

those are kind of my two outlets cool

cool yeah we will have you back

definitely

hopefully soon and have fun playing with

your kids and i enjoyed it a lot it was

an honor to have you on my show and yeah

take care stay healthy and

yeah the best to you yeah same to you

Marc and thanks for having me on

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